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Posts Tagged ‘Sacramento Bee’

9500 BUSINESS CLOSE THEIR DOORS

February 14th, 2010
The Sacramento Bee reported today that 9,500 businesses have closed their door for good in the area,one for every six still open, and more than in 17 entire states, including Utah, Arankas, and New Mexico.  What that means to the region is less sales tax revenue for the four-county region, fewer jobs, fewer shopping options, less commercial construction, plenty of thwarted dreams.  The human toll is significant.According to the BEE, Sacramento has the highest proportion of closed business, while nearby Placer County ranks third.

According to Postal Service Data, as of September, the number of dormant addresses in Sacramento, Yolo, Placer and El Dorado counties had jumped more than 50 percent during the recession.

On the bright side, if there is one, commercial rents have fallen sharply as supply exceeds demand. This may be a Golden opportunity for Entrepreneurs with cash can get a deal and jump-start a new business.  At the same time, its no secret that cautious and troubled banks aren’t granting many loans to launch enterprises. Many businesses and offices are stuck with rents they can’t afford, while relocation costs keep them from moving.

As consumers and companies have changed their spending patterns, the flow of money has trickled down to a standstill, especially in retail.

Statistics from the Bankruptcy Court indicate an overall 47% incease in Bankruptcy filings.

SACRAMENTO 02/01/08 – 01/31/09 02/01/09 – 01/31/10 + / -
Chapter 7 16014 23640 47.6%
Chapter 9 1 0 -100.0%
Chapter 11 100 162 62.0%
Chapter 12 2 9 350.0%
Chapter 13 3883 5655 45.6%
Total Filings 20000 29466 47.3%
Motion 8502 9792 15.2%
Adversaries 774 799 3.2%
Closings 17742 25589 44.2%

The projected number of defaults in 2010 on mortgages is estimate to be approximately 2.5 million, according to the Department of the Treasury.  And although nobody knows for sure where where the economy is going, lack of funding for small businesses is a major problem that needs  to be addressed in order to stop the downward spiral.  As the number of small businesses closes, unemployment will continue to be a problem, affecting everything from commercial to retail.  Without easing tight credit restrictions, the trend is likely to continue.

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THE PROMENADE SHOULD BE RENAMED “THE GHOSTWALK”

December 6th, 2009

THE PROMENADE SHOULD BE RENAMED “THE GHOSTWALK”

Dale Kasler did a follow up in the Sacramento Bee about General Growth Properties, Inc. it’s Reorganization Plan, and the prospects for the Promenade in the near future. Elk Grove’s unfinished megamall will likely remain stalled even though its developer has taken a major step toward exiting bankruptcy protection. General Growth Properties Inc. said it has reached agreement with lenders to restructure billions of dollars in debt, as part of a reorganization plan that would leave the Chicago mall developer largely intact. The plan needs the approval of creditors.

But unfinished projects, including the Elk Grove Promenade, aren’t part of the reorganization plan. General Growth is still negotiating with lenders on those projects, company spokesman Jim Graham said Wednesday.

The Promenade’s future “remains to be seen,” Graham said. Construction on the on the 1.1 million-square-foot mall ground to a halt in October 2008, and lawsuits from contractors seeking payment began piling up. Last February the project, surrounded by chain-link fence and sprouting weeds, was officially put on hold indefinitely. Two months later, buried under billions of dollars in debt, General Growthfiled for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The site is now a steel ghost town, an e1ery site that looks like the survivor of a nuclear winter or an outtake from the Omega Man.

The company tried to sell the mall earlier this year but pulled it off the market several months ago. Graham said the Promenade’s fate is “subject to market conditions that are unrelated to the bankruptcy.” Analysts agree, saying the Promenade190 is a troubled project regardless of what happens to General Growth.

Another point of view might be that the market conditions that caused the bankruptcy was the failure of the developer and planners to adequately prepare feasbility studies and understand demographic trends. Ambition and greed may have factored into a ill fated decision to go ahead and build before the time was ripe. That’s of course the dual problem of being a developer, being a visionary and being accurately able to predict future growth patterns.

The Sacramento research director at commercial real estate broker Colliers International, Garrick Brown, said the Promenade won’t open “for three years at best, more likely four years.” Brown said the retail market is starting to improve, but the Promenade was built too far out in front of Elk Grove’s housing development. The mall is about two miles from the nearest housing. “Nobody wants to touch it until there are homes there,” he said. The mall, first proposed in 1997, has been a symbol of Elk Grove’s ambitions and frustrations. It spurred Elk Grove’s push for cityhood in 2000. Macy’s and Barnes & Noble were among the earliest anchor tenants committing to the project.

With unemployment officially at 10.2% nationwide, the State in Deep Financial crisis, Bankrupticies at all an all time high, and Chairman of the Fed Ben Bernanke saying Monday that the employment picture isn’t going to get dramaticallly better in the near futre, until economic circumstances change, the Promenade is going to be a symbol of ambition gone awry and failed dreams. The Promenade might now be known as the “Ghostwalk,” a regional symbol of the times, where the dreams of visionaries haunt the landscape, waiting without hope of a certain future.

Paul R. Bartleson
Sacramento Bankruptcy Lawyer.

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THE SAGA OF GENERAL GROWTH

December 2nd, 2009

The Sacramento Bee reported today that General Growth Properties, Inc., the developer of The Elk Grove Mega Mall, called the Promenade, which remains unfinished, took a big step toward exiting bankruptcy today, but the project remains in limbo. General Growth said it had reached agreement with lenders on more than 90 malls, part of a bankruptcy reorganization plan that would keep the Chicago mall developer largely intact. But the agreement didn’t cover unfinished projects such as the Elk Grove Site known as the Promenade, said Jim Graham, company spokesman.

The company halted construction on the Promenade in October 2008; in February it said the project was on hold indefinitely. Contractor lawsuits and mechanics liens started piling up. The company tried selling the mall site to investors but pulled it off the market several months ago.

Market analysts believe the mall won’t get completed for several years, regardless of what happens to General Growth. There are obviously a variety of factors involved in this, included high unemployment and the State of California’s fiscal crisis.
Graham reportedly said the fate of Elk Grove mall is “subject to market conditions that are unrelated to the bankruptcy.”
General Growth filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy in April of 2009, staggered by billions in debts.

It’s uncertain what Mr. Graham meant by “market conditions that are unrelated to the bankruptcy,” but those might include problems in obtaining financing and investment capital. Another factor might be grossly overestimating the region’s ability to absorb growth based on demographics, rather than housing projections. Harry Dent, the same guy who wrote the Roaring 2000s, wrote an interesting book called the “Great Depression Ahead,” in which he predicted a stock market and real estate crash based upon sheer demographics, that the real estate market was bound to decline simply because the baby boomers were starting to retire, and the generation following up behind was smaller in number, and in addition, holds different values and buying habits. As the era of rampant consumerism and free wheeling credit winds down, it appears to be anybody’s guess when, if ever , the project will be completed.

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